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Multi‑objective modeling for post‑disaster water distribution network reconstruction under interval uncertainty
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چکیده: (4 مشاهده) |
Urban water distribution networks are vital infrastructures, yet natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods cause severe damage to them. Reconstruction presents a strategic opportunity to enhance resilience, though it inherently involves conflicting objectives of maximizing resilience and distributive equity while minimizing cost and pollution. Uncertainty in input data including cost, project impacts, and pollution due to market fluctuations, climate changes, and measurement errors further complicates decision‑making. This study develops a multi‑objective 0‑1 knapsack optimization model with interval data for post‑disaster water supply network reconstruction project portfolio selection. The model incorporates four interval‑valued objective functions for maximizing resilience and equity and minimizing cost and pollution, subject to constraints on budget, pollution, parallel execution time, minimum reliability, and regional project quotas. Interval solutions are compared and ranked using the possibility degree of superiority and a Boolean matrix, avoiding any early defuzzification. Objectives are normalized by their maximum possible values, and complete enumeration is employed for a 12‑project numerical study. Five weighting scenarios are defined, accompanied by sensitivity analysis on four critical parameters. Results indicate that the resilience‑oriented scenario achieves the highest resilience and equity, though at higher cost and pollution, whereas the economy‑oriented scenario minimizes cost and the environment‑oriented scenario yields the lowest pollution. Sensitivity analysis identifies budget as the most critical constraint; under severe budget or carbon caps, all scenarios converge to a single solution. The resilience‑oriented scenario proves stable against tighter reliability but fragile against budget cuts, while the economy‑oriented scenario exhibits opposite behavior. The proposed model provides a robust decision‑support tool, revealing that under extreme resource scarcity, policymakers must prioritize resource augmentation. Future research may explore project synergies and chance constraints with variable confidence levels.
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متن کامل [PDF 1251 kb]
(2 دریافت)
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نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
موضوع مقاله:
عمومى
دریافت: 1405/2/17 | پذیرش: 1405/4/15 | انتشار: 1405/6/12
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