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A dynamic hybrid model (system dynamics -network data envelopment analysis) for predictive evaluation of sustainable procurement performance in construction industry
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S. Eidivandi   , N. Amani , M. Ehsanifar |
| Department of Civil Engineering, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalous, Iran |
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Abstract: (11 Views) |
Sustainable Procurement Management (SPM) plays an important role in improving the environmental and economic performance of construction projects; however, conventional efficiency assessment approaches, particularly Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), are primarily retrospective and provide limited support for evaluating the future effects of alternative management policies. This study therefore develops an integrated System Dynamics (SD)–Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) framework to simulate the future performance of SPM and evaluate the efficiency of alternative policy scenarios in the construction industry of an emerging economy. First, a causal-loop SD model was developed to capture the dynamic relationships among key SPM factors and to forecast relevant inputs and outputs under alternative management scenarios. The simulation results were subsequently incorporated into a two-stage series NDEA model to evaluate efficiency across the construction and operation phases and to identify inefficiencies transmitted between consecutive stages. The proposed framework was empirically applied to data from ten major construction projects in Tehran, Iran. The results showed that the mean efficiency was 0.78 in the construction phase and 0.65 in the operation phase, indicating a 16.7% efficiency gap between the two stages. Scenario analysis further demonstrated that proactive investment in sustainable supplier development could substantially improve long-term performance, with the projected efficiency increasing to 0.88 over a five-year horizon, corresponding to an improvement of approximately 23% relative to the baseline scenario. These findings demonstrate that integrating SD simulation with multi-stage NDEA can complement conventional retrospective efficiency assessment by linking dynamic policy simulation with network-based efficiency evaluation. The proposed framework provides construction managers and policymakers with a forward-looking decision-support tool for comparing policy alternatives, improving resource allocation, and supporting more sustainable procurement practices in construction projects.
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| Keywords: System Dynamics (SD), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Sustainable Procurement Management, Construction Project. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1160 kb]
(5 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2026/02/3 | Accepted: 2026/03/10 | Published: 2026/04/12
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