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A system dynamics–based evaluation of fiscal regimes in mining projects using fuzzy cognitive mapping: Evidence from Iranian state-owned mines
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M. Amiri Simkouei   , A. Sadeghian , M. T. Honari , M. Rabbani |
| Department of Industrial Management, YA.C., Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran |
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Abstract: (10 Views) |
| Current study aims to simulate and evaluate fiscal regimes in state-owned mining projects under the Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO), employing an integrated framework of fuzzy decision-making models and system dynamics simulation. First, a comprehensive set of indicators influencing mining fiscal regimes was identified through reviewing theoretical literature, tax regulations, and empirical studies. Subsequently, using the fuzzy Delphi method and expert opinions in mineral economics, 20 key indicators were confirmed out of an initial list of 38. Next, the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) technique was used to determine the strength and direction of interrelations among indicators. The variables “metal reserves before taxation” and “net project return” were identified as the most strategic drivers of the system. In the final stage, in order to analyze the dynamic behavior of financial and technical variables over time, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed and simulated using Vensim PLE software. The simulation results revealed that increasing tax rates and royalty fees, although leading to higher short-term government revenue, ultimately causes a decline in investment, productivity, and economic returns of mining projects in and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO), employing an integrated framework of fuzzy decision-making models and system dynamics simulation. Conversely, intelligent adjustment of tax rates and achieving a balance between government revenue and investment attractiveness can ensure the economic sustainability of the mining sector. By integrating the fuzzy Delphi, FCM, and system dynamics methodologies, this research provides a scientific and dynamic framework for evaluating and optimizing fiscal regimes in the mining industry. The proposed framework can serve as a decision-support tool for IMIDRO and other policymaking institutions in formulating fiscal policies, designing optimal taxation models, and enhancing the economic sustainability of national mining projects. |
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| Keywords: Fiscal Regime, Mining Projects, Fuzzy Delphi, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM), System Dynamics (SD). |
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Full-Text [PDF 1127 kb]
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2026/04/13 | Accepted: 2026/09/7 | Published: 2026/09/25
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