International Journal of Applied Operational Research

en Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting Electricity Consumption تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research دقت پیش‌بینی مصرف برق در آینده به‌منظور مدیریت تولید برق بسیار مهم است. ازآنجاکه ذخیره‌سازی انرژی الکتریکی بسیار دشوار است، پیش‌بینی قابل‌اعتماد و دقیق از مصرف برق ضروری است. رویکردهای مختلفی برای این منظور مورداستفاده قرارگرفته است. در این مقاله مدل خاکستری GM(1,1) <span .="" b="" dir="LTR" font-size:="" lang="FA" mso-ascii-font-family:="" mso-ascii-theme-font:="" mso-bidi-font-family:="" mso-bidi-language:="" mso-hansi-font-family:="" mso-hansi-theme-font:="" new="" span="" style="line-height: 115%; font-family: " times=""> نسبت به مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی بهتر عمل می‌کند. Accurate prediction of the future electricity consumption is crucial for production electricity management. Since the storage of electrical energy is very difficult, reliable and accurate prediction of power consumption is important. Different approaches for this purpose were used. In this paper, Grey model (1,1) based on grey system theory has been used for forecasting results. Annual electricity consumption and forecasting data in Mazandaran were used as our case study. Root mean squared error, Mean absolute error and Mean of average percentage error accuracy testing results show that GM(1,1) is outperformed compared with model fitting and model forecasting. Accuracy, Grey system theory, Forecasting, GM(1,1) model, DGM(2,1) model. 1 9 http://ijorlu.lahijan.iau.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-450-1&slc_lang=en&sid=1 D. Darvishi Salokolaei darvishidavood@yahoo.com 10031947532846001066 10031947532846001066 Yes Department of Mathematics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran P. Babaei p.babaeivalohi@gmail.com 10031947532846001067 10031947532846001067 No Department of Mathematics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran S. Liu sfliu@nuaa.edu.cn 10031947532846001068 10031947532846001068 No College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics